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Will Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul call an election in 2025? Yes: real money 94%, play money 95% No: real money 6%, play money 5% Volume: real money 536.21199388, play money 61979.9990229 Bettors: real money 6, play money 18 Categories: Politics, Asia/Pacific Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2397.20275525, play 31302.33685035 Bettors: real 26, play 88 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 43% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 43% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2715.2344096, play 116947.89325969 Bettors: real 39, play 214 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Brazil’s Next President Elect (ID: 233774) Volume: real 159348.86515878, play 2006284.5740732 Bettors: real 153, play 329 Leading (real money): Flávio Bolsonaro 84% Leading (play money): Flávio Bolsonaro 89% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1655.2215382, play 37150.61303342 Bettors: real 24, play 120 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 51% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

Will Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul call an election in 2025?

Market Rules

This market concerns whether Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will dissolve the House of Representatives and thereby officially call a new general election on or before December 31, 2025, 16:59:59 UTC. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements from the Royal Thai Government or the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) confirming that the House of Representatives will be or has been dissolved in 2025, triggering a new general election.

Resolution conditions (first-truth applies):

  1. If, by the deadline, the Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul or the Royal Thai Government officially announces the dissolution of the House of Representatives, thereby calling a general election in 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes".
  2. If no such dissolution and election call occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".

The Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be clear, consistent reporting from reliable news organizations, chosen at Futuur’s discretion, confirming whether or not the House of Representatives was or will be dissolved and a general election called in 2025. Resolution will be based on the substantive intent of the market, not on technicalities. If no fair determination can be made after these steps, the market may be cancelled.

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Comments

  • pedro_brito: Royal Thai Government: https://www.thaigov.go.th/th/news/159948
  • pedro_brito: Thailand’s parliament is dissolved for a new election early next year: https://apnews.com/article/thailand-election-cambodia-b9cddef068c4415ec29f0e423dd3e006

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