Will Trump win the FTC removal case during the Court’s current term?

This market concerns the U.S. Supreme Court case Trump v. Slaughter, expected to decide whether (i) the statutory removal protections for members of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) violate the separation of powers, and (ii) whether the precedent established in Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935) should be overruled. The Court may also address whether federal courts can lawfully prevent a president from removing an appointed official.

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official opinion and judgment published on the Supreme Court of the United States website.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, during its 2025-2026 term, rules in favor of Trump—that is, if a majority of justices conclude that the President has the constitutional authority to remove FTC commissioners at will, or if the Court overturns or substantially limits Humphrey’s Executor. It will resolve to “No” if the Court upholds the existing removal protections for FTC commissioners or otherwise rules against Trump’s position, or if the Court ends the current term without a substantive ruling on presidential removal power. If the Court dismisses the case on procedural grounds the market may be cancelled. If official publication is delayed or unclear, Futuur will rely on reporting by reliable news outlets, chosen at Futuur’s discretion, confirming the ruling outcome.