Will the SCOTUS rule by June 30 that state bans of ‘conversion therapy’ violate free speech?

This market will resolve based on whether the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issues a ruling during its current term (ending June 30, 2026) in the case Chiles v. Salazar, or any directly consolidated case, finding that state laws or regulations banning so-called “conversion therapy” violate the First Amendment’s Free Speech Clause. For the purpose of this market, “violate free speech” means the Court holds that such bans unconstitutionally restrict protected speech by licensed professionals or counselors. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official opinion and judgment published on the Supreme Court of the United States website.

If the Court dismisses the case, declines to rule on the First Amendment issue, or upholds state bans as constitutional, the market will resolve to “No.” If the case is postponed to the next term or withdrawn without a final opinion, the market will also resolve to "No". If the official ruling is unavailable or unclear, Futuur will rely on reporting by reliable media outlets, chosen at Futuur’s discretion, confirming the substance of the decision.