Will Jerome Powell step down from the Fed board by July 1?
Market Rules
This market will resolve based on whether Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, steps down, whether by resignation, early retirement, dismissal, or replacement, from the Board of Governors on or before July 1, 2026, 23:59 UTC-5. This market does not predict whether Powell will hold office as Fed’s chair by the referred date.
For the purposes of this market, “steps down” means that Powell no longer holds the legal title of Governor as officially recognized by the Federal Reserve Board, regardless of announcement timing. Temporary absences, health-related leaves, or transitional overlap during confirmation of a successor will not count unless the Fed’s official roster no longer lists Powell as a member.
Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official Board of Governors roster and press releases from the Federal Reserve confirming changes to the membership of the Board. If these sources confirm Powell’s definitive absence by July 1, 2026, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): Futuur may rely on consistent confirmation from reliable news outlets, chosen at its discretion, reporting that Powell has left the Board. Resolution will follow the substantive outcome (the end of Powell’s service as a Fed Governor) over minor technicalities in publication or announcement timing. If no fair determination can be made, the market may be cancelled.