Will D66 form a coalition government in the Netherlands in 2025?
Market Rules
This market will resolve based on whether the Democrats 66 (D66) political party becomes part of a coalition government in the Netherlands on or before December 18, 2025 (the last working day of the Tweede Kamer). For this market, a coalition government means that D66 holds one or more cabinet positions within a government formally supported by two or more parties that together control a majority of 76 or more seats in the House of Representatives.
Participation in negotiations or informal cooperation does not qualify unless D66 formally joins the governing coalition and its members are appointed to cabinet positions. If D66 participates in a coalition that fails to hold a majority, this market will resolve to “No.”
Primary Designated Source (PDS): official announcements and records from the Government of the Netherlands, the Tweede Kamer, or the Kiesraad (Electoral Council) confirming the composition of the cabinet or the signing of a coalition agreement involving D66. If these official sources confirm that D66 has joined a majority coalition government by December 18, 2025, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): Futuur may rely on clear and consistent reporting from reliable news outlets, chosen at its discretion, confirming that D66 is part of a majority coalition government. Resolution will reflect the substantive political outcome rather than minor procedural delays or publication technicalities. If no fair determination is possible, the market may be cancelled.