Will Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 9%, play money 10% No: real money 91%, play money 90% Volume: real money 58.39880625, play money 6755.82722401 Bettors: real money 7, play money 12 Categories: Finance, Billionaires Related markets Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2770.42679439, play 122128.47381409 Bettors: real 39, play 217 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 81% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3261.29128162, play 139020.85773009 Bettors: real 32, play 212 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 40% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 46% SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? (ID: 201462) Volume: real 1199.00465764, play 189089.74609407 Bettors: real 28, play 146 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 7% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1739.70477279, play 37150.61303342 Bettors: real 24, play 120 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 41% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

Will Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether Elon Musk will formally create or register a political party in the United States at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, creating a party means formal registration with relevant U.S. electoral authorities. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official filings or announcements confirming party registration.

If Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Statements of intent or informal movements without official registration will not count. If official filings are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major U.S. news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive party creation, not public statements alone. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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