Will either Fitch or S&P downgrade the US sovereign rating in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Brazil’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating will be upgraded by either Fitch Ratings or S&P Global Ratings at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official rating action announcements published by Fitch or S&P.
If either Fitch or S&P formally raises (upgrades) Brazil’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Outlook changes, watch placements, or methodological reviews that do not result in a higher rating level will not count. If official announcements are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major financial news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive increase in rating level, not outlook or methodology changes. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.
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