Will an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether an open-source artificial intelligence model will rank first on the “Overall” leaderboard of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena at the end of December 31, 2026 (UTC-3). For this market, an open-source model means one whose model weights are freely available under a license permitting use, modification, and redistribution. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard.

If the model holding the number-one position on the LMSYS “Overall” leaderboard at the cutoff time is an open-source model, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Subsequent leaderboard updates after the cutoff will not affect resolution. If the LMSYS leaderboard significantly changes methodology or becomes unavailable, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on an alternative reputable benchmark selected by Futuur. Resolution will reflect the top-ranked model at the cutoff time, not later changes. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.