Will any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?

This event predicts whether any country will become a new nuclear-armed state between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, becoming a nuclear power means successfully possessing at least one operational nuclear weapon. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be authoritative international sources, including SIPRI and official government confirmations.

If authoritative sources confirm that a country newly acquired operational nuclear weapons during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Countries that previously possessed nuclear weapons, even if dormant or undeclared, will not count as new nuclear powers. If confirmation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations and defense institutes. Resolution will reflect substantive acquisition of nuclear weapons, not speculation. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.