US recognition of an independent Palestinean state in 2026?

This event predicts whether the United States will formally recognize Palestine as an independent sovereign state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements or declarations by the U.S. government recognizing Palestine as a sovereign state.

If the United States officially declares recognition of Palestine as an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Statements supporting a two-state solution or negotiations without formal recognition will not count. If official statements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect formal diplomatic recognition, not advocacy alone. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.