Separatist referendum in any Canadian province in 2026?

This event predicts whether any Canadian province will officially hold a separatist referendum during calendar year 2026. For this market, a referendum must be officially announced and conducted under provincial or territorial law. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official provincial announcements or legal notices confirming the referendum.

If any Canadian province officially holds a legally sanctioned separatist referendum during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Informal consultations, non‑binding votes, or activist polls will not count. If official announcements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Canadian news organizations. Resolution will reflect official, legally sanctioned referendums, not informal votes. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.