Breach in the ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026?

This event predicts whether there will be a breach of the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan at any time during 2026. For this market, a breach means kinetic military action involving the firing of weapons across the ceasefire line. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements by the governments of Armenia or Azerbaijan, or reports by internationally recognized monitoring bodies.

If kinetic military action violating the ceasefire occurs during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Cyber operations, rhetoric, or non-kinetic incidents will not count. If official statements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive kinetic breaches, not accusations alone. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.