Severe nuclear accident in the Zaporizhzhia plant in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether a severe nuclear accident will originate at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine during calendar year 2026. For this market, a severe accident means one rated at least Level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
If the IAEA confirms that a nuclear accident rated Level 5 or higher on the INES originated at the Zaporizhzhia plant during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Incidents rated below Level 5 or occurring at other facilities will not count. If official assessments are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the confirmed occurrence of a severe accident, not speculation. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.