Iran leadership change by...?

This event predicts whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to act as the de facto leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran at any point between the creation of this event and the date specified in each market (the “Event Period”).

For this event, Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to have ceased to be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses the ability to exercise the authority associated with the country’s supreme leadership position. If Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to act as the de facto leader of Iran at any time before the deadline of a given market, that market will resolve to “Yes”. If he remains the de facto leader through that deadline, the market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement confirming Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation, removal, or loss of authority will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if the effective date of the change occurs later. Temporary absences, short-term incapacitation, or delegation of authority that does not permanently remove him from leadership will not qualify.

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements from the Iranian government or other authoritative state bodies confirming the leadership change. If official confirmation is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear, overwhelming consensus among major, reputable international news organizations reporting the same leadership change. Resolution will be based on the substantive change in leadership status, not technical differences in wording or reporting format. If no fair determination can be made, Futuur may cancel the event with a public explanation.