Trump to lift Hormuz blockade by ...?
Market Rules
This set of markets concerns whether Donald Trump, acting as President of the United States, formally ends the U.S. “Targeted Port Blockade” against Iran, initiated by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on April 13, 2026, on or before the limit date specified in each Market Period.
For these markets, the “Targeted Port Blockade” refers to the U.S. military operation involving the interception, boarding, or restriction of vessels specifically destined for or departing from Iranian ports (such as Bandar Abbas), conducted by U.S. naval forces. This does not include a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains open to general maritime traffic.
A “lifting” of the blockade requires that the United States government officially announce or confirm that the interdiction operation has been terminated or suspended indefinitely, and that U.S. forces are no longer conducting systematic boarding or restriction of Iran-linked vessels under that operation. If such a lifting is confirmed by the deadline described in a market, that market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
Temporary pauses, reductions in enforcement intensity, selective enforcement, or short-term suspensions (e.g., lasting fewer than 7 consecutive days) do not qualify. Continued interception of vessels, even at reduced frequency, will be considered evidence that the blockade remains in effect.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements from the United States government (including the White House, Department of Defense, or CENTCOM) confirming that the operation has been ended or suspended indefinitely. If official confirmation is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus of major reputable international news organizations reporting that U.S. interdiction operations have ceased. Resolution will be based on the substantive cessation of the blockade activity, not on partial changes or political statements alone. If a fair determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.