US Treasury 10-year yield on June 30? 4.40 or less: real money 15%, play money 15% 4.41 to 4.45: real money 20%, play money 20% 4.46 to 4.50: real money 25%, play money 25% 4.50 to 4.54: real money 15%, play money 15% 4.55 to 4.59: real money 15%, play money 15% 4.60 or more: real money 10%, play money 10% Volume: real money 150.55567914, play money 15000.6 Bettors: real money 12, play money 12 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Interest Rates Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2045.00877596, play 37828.53405976 Bettors: real 23, play 85 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 46% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 39% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1268.19508194, play 40999.49399825 Bettors: real 17, play 52 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 25% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 43% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.88778546, play 115647.39564601 Bettors: real 39, play 212 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 75% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3007.61949177, play 137976.01234673 Bettors: real 30, play 209 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 10% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 55% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 963.95276357, play 127896.20979507 Bettors: real 75, play 91 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97%

US Treasury 10-year yield on June 30?

Market Rules

This event predicts the yield curve par rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as reported for June 30, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, using the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates publication. The relevant value is the 10-year yield shown for June 30, 2026, as first published by the Treasury.

If the Treasury publication for that date is delayed, unavailable, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be confirmation of the same 10-year par yield figure from the Treasury’s official data archives or a clear consensus of reporting by major financial news organizations such as Reuters or Bloomberg citing Treasury data. The markets will resolve according to the substantive yield value and the intent of the market, not minor formatting or presentation differences. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the data after the initial publication will not affect the market's resolution; if no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.

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