US Treasury 10-year yield on June 30? 4.40 or less: real money 15%, play money 15% 4.41 to 4.45: real money 20%, play money 20% 4.46 to 4.50: real money 25%, play money 25% 4.50 to 4.54: real money 15%, play money 15% 4.55 to 4.59: real money 15%, play money 15% 4.60 or more: real money 10%, play money 10% Volume: real money 149.97, play money 15000 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Interest Rates Related markets Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 925.24553164, play 127895.40979507 Bettors: real 65, play 85 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.78775908, play 114986.66327483 Bettors: real 39, play 211 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 74% Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2044.86415693, play 36521.10714014 Bettors: real 22, play 83 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 46% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 36% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3007.5194239, play 137081.00274465 Bettors: real 30, play 209 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 11% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1268.06728697, play 40478.30831664 Bettors: real 16, play 51 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 25% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 44%

US Treasury 10-year yield on June 30?

Market Rules

This event predicts the yield curve par rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as reported for June 30, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, using the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates publication. The relevant value is the 10-year yield shown for June 30, 2026, as first published by the Treasury.

If the Treasury publication for that date is delayed, unavailable, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be confirmation of the same 10-year par yield figure from the Treasury’s official data archives or a clear consensus of reporting by major financial news organizations such as Reuters or Bloomberg citing Treasury data. The markets will resolve according to the substantive yield value and the intent of the market, not minor formatting or presentation differences. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the data after the initial publication will not affect the market's resolution; if no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.

Tags

Related Markets