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How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027? 4 to 6: real money 35%, play money 35% 3 or less: real money 20%, play money 20% 7 to 9: real money 20%, play money 20% 10 to 12: real money 18%, play money 18% 13 to 15: real money 7%, play money 7% Volume: real money 59.976, play money 6000 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Politics, USA, White House, Staff and Cabinet Related markets Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.78775908, play 114986.66327483 Bettors: real 39, play 211 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 74% China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1163.80843469, play 231434.97862456 Bettors: real 33, play 502 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 13% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 8%

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Market Rules

This set of markets predicts the number of the 15 named U.S. executive-branch officials below who, before January 1, 2027, will either leave their position, formally announce they will leave their position, or whose agency announces that they have left or will leave their position. Each market corresponds to a different, mutually exclusive numeric range of officials. Only one market will resolve "Yes".

The 15 officials are:

  1. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor — Marco Rubio
  2. Secretary of the Treasury — Scott Bessent
  3. Secretary of Defense — Pete Hegseth
  4. Attorney General — Pam Bondi
  5. Secretary of Health & Human Services — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
  6. Secretary of Commerce — Howard Lutnick
  7. Secretary of Homeland Security — Kristi Noem
  8. Director of National Intelligence — Tulsi Gabbard
  9. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency — John Ratcliffe
  10. OMB Director — Russell Vought
  11. White House Chief of Staff — Susie Wiles
  12. DOJ (FBI) Director — Kash Patel
  13. Border Czar — Tom Homan
  14. Senior Counselor for Trade/Manufacturing — Peter Navarro
  15. Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor — Stephen Miller

Any person holding more than one of these listed roles at the moment this market opens must leave both roles to count (this notably applies to Marco Rubio, who holds the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor positions simultaneously).

The Primary Designated Source is the official White House website, the Federal Register, and statements from each named agency. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm departures, announced departures, or agency announcements. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.

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