Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ...?
Market Rules
This set of markets predicts when Israel will announce that it has withdrawn all of its ground forces from Lebanese territory. Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes". A market resolves to "Yes" if Israel publicly announces, on or before the market's deadline, that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory. The announcement must refer to a completed withdrawal; an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not qualify.
A “Yes” resolution requires only the announcement of completed withdrawal, and it is not affected by whether some Lebanese territory remains under Israeli control or whether ground incursions by Israeli forces resume afterward. The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory for the purposes of this event and is not considered toward resolution.
The Primary Designated Source is official communications from the Government of Israel — the Office of the Prime Minister (gov.il) and the Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson's Unit (idf.il). An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming the withdrawal may also be used to confirm this event’s resolution.