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US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — July 2026 3.0% or less: real money 1%, play money 1% 3.10%: real money 2%, play money 1% 3.20%: real money 1%, play money 1% 3.30%: real money 94%, play money 99% 3.40%: real money 1%, play money 1% 3.50%: real money 1%, play money 1% 3.6% or more: real money 1%, play money 1% Volume: real money 19377.68667717, play money 30902.68394398 Bettors: real money 31, play money 10 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Inflation Related markets Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222364) Volume: real 82.61041415, play 4228.22305726 Bettors: real 8, play 15 Leading (real money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Leading (play money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Euro area’s inflation rate in 2026 (ID: 231719) Volume: real 449.22807135, play 9115.30084306 Bettors: real 39, play 15 Leading (real money): 2.0% to 2.2% 33% Leading (play money): 2.0% to 2.2% 39% US annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026? (ID: 231758) Volume: real 35.39676923, play 50.49806122 Bettors: real 26, play 12 Leading (real money): Between 2.5% and 2,9% 41% Leading (play money): Between 2.5% and 2,9% 42% Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222363) Volume: real 277.71158375, play 4616.10932043 Bettors: real 14, play 19 Leading (real money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 33% Leading (play money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 45% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1629.54428251, play 36328.18707992 Bettors: real 24, play 118 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 50% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — July 2026

Market Rules

Markets in this event resolve according to the 12-month percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) for the twelve months ending July 2026, as first reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (one decimal place) in the Personal Income and Outlays report scheduled for August 26, 2026. Exactly one outcome will resolve "Yes".

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