Markets
Leaderboard
US unemployment rate — August 2026 Above 3.7%: real money 98%, play money 95% Above 3.8%: real money 97%, play money 94% Above 3.9%: real money 97%, play money 94% Above 4.0%: real money 98%, play money 86% Above 4.1%: real money 22%, play money 64% Above 4.2%: real money 17%, play money 39% Above 4.3%: real money 4%, play money 15% Above 4.4%: real money 6%, play money 12% Above 4.5%: real money 5%, play money 11% Above 4.6%: real money 5%, play money 11% Volume: real money 359.52127798, play money 0 Bettors: real money 26, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Employment Related markets Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222364) Volume: real 82.61041415, play 4228.22305726 Bettors: real 8, play 15 Leading (real money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Leading (play money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222363) Volume: real 277.71158375, play 4616.10932043 Bettors: real 14, play 19 Leading (real money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 33% Leading (play money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 45% MSCI Emerging Markets Index performance in 2026 (ID: 231734) Volume: real 11.20204594, play 100.399 Bettors: real 22, play 9 Leading (real money): Between 10% and 20% 40% Leading (play money): Between 10% and 20% 39% MSCI World Index performance in 2026 (ID: 231735) Volume: real 6.29780187, play 2500.4021 Bettors: real 21, play 10 Leading (real money): Between 5% and 10% 32% Leading (play money): Between 5% and 10% 34% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1629.54428251, play 36328.18707992 Bettors: real 24, play 118 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 50% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

US unemployment rate — August 2026

Market Rules

Each market in this event resolves "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted US unemployment rate (U-3) for August 2026, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report (one decimal place), is above the listed threshold. Markets resolve independently — every threshold below the reported figure resolves "Yes".

Tags

People also viewed