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US unemployment rate — August 2026 Above 3.7%: real money 98%, play money 95% Above 3.8%: real money 97%, play money 94% Above 3.9%: real money 97%, play money 94% Above 4.0%: real money 98%, play money 86% Above 4.1%: real money 22%, play money 64% Above 4.2%: real money 17%, play money 39% Above 4.3%: real money 4%, play money 15% Above 4.4%: real money 6%, play money 12% Above 4.5%: real money 5%, play money 11% Above 4.6%: real money 5%, play money 11% Volume: real money 359.52127798, play money 0 Bettors: real money 26, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Employment Related markets Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222364) Volume: real 82.61041415, play 4414.35042375 Bettors: real 8, play 16 Leading (real money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Leading (play money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 20% How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? (ID: 242636) Volume: real 896.63130834, play 64450.38171734 Bettors: real 22, play 13 Leading (real money): Hit 5.2% 99% Leading (play money): Hit 5.0% 99% Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222363) Volume: real 292.70673305, play 8707.76416891 Bettors: real 15, play 19 Leading (real money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 33% Leading (play money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 35% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1655.2215382, play 37150.61303342 Bettors: real 24, play 120 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 51% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

US unemployment rate — August 2026

Market Rules

Each market in this event resolves "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted US unemployment rate (U-3) for August 2026, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report (one decimal place), is above the listed threshold. Markets resolve independently — every threshold below the reported figure resolves "Yes".

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