How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Hit 4.8%: real money 99%, play money 99%
Hit 5.0%: real money 99%, play money 99%
Hit 5.2%: real money 82%, play money 98%
Hit 5.5%: real money 46%, play money 12%
Hit 5.7%: real money 27%, play money 5%
Hit 6.0%: real money 3%, play money 3%
Volume: real money 631.60346741, play money 59938.90681269
Bettors: real money 17, play money 10
Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Interest Rates
Related markets
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 (ID: 231723)
Volume: real 923.16006409, play 112232.72867893
Bettors: real 40, play 33
Leading (real money): 3.5% or more 89%
Leading (play money): 3.5% or more 89%
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 (ID: 231724)
Volume: real 1870.58865087, play 49082.93105834
Bettors: real 61, play 33
Leading (real money): 0 89%
Leading (play money): 0 89%
Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362)
Volume: real 1629.54428251, play 36955.87550056
Bettors: real 24, play 120
Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 50%
Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Market Rules
Each market in this event resolves "Yes" if the US 10-year Treasury par yield reaches or exceeds the listed value on any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, per the US Department of the Treasury’s "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" dataset. Markets resolve independently — more than one can resolve "Yes".
Comments
- almascript: looks like we hit 5.0% on sept 15th? or am I looking at wrong chart