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US nonfarm payrolls — August 2026 Above 20,000: real money 89%, play money 89% Above 30,000: real money 86%, play money 80% Above 40,000: real money 76%, play money 81% Above 50,000: real money 45%, play money 65% Above 60,000: real money 36%, play money 66% Above 70,000: real money 31%, play money 57% Above 80,000: real money 28%, play money 52% Above 90,000: real money 29%, play money 48% Above 100,000: real money 14%, play money 45% Above 125,000: real money 11%, play money 39% Volume: real money 588.96839315, play money 559.58011901 Bettors: real money 43, play money 2 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Employment Related markets Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222364) Volume: real 82.61041415, play 4228.22305726 Bettors: real 8, play 15 Leading (real money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Leading (play money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222363) Volume: real 277.71158375, play 4616.10932043 Bettors: real 14, play 19 Leading (real money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 33% Leading (play money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 45% MSCI Emerging Markets Index performance in 2026 (ID: 231734) Volume: real 11.20204594, play 100.399 Bettors: real 22, play 9 Leading (real money): Between 10% and 20% 40% Leading (play money): Between 10% and 20% 39% MSCI World Index performance in 2026 (ID: 231735) Volume: real 6.29780187, play 2500.4021 Bettors: real 21, play 10 Leading (real money): Between 5% and 10% 32% Leading (play money): Between 5% and 10% 34% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1629.54428251, play 36328.18707992 Bettors: real 24, play 118 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 50% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

US nonfarm payrolls — August 2026

Market Rules

Each market in this event resolves "Yes" if the month-over-month increase in total US nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report, is above the listed threshold. Markets resolve independently — every threshold below the reported figure resolves "Yes".

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