Will the EU order a general-purpose AI model withdrawn or restricted from its market before 2027?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market resolves "Yes" if, between 10:04 UTC on October 13, 2026 and the end of 2026, the European Commission (via the EU AI Office) formally requires a provider to restrict, withdraw or recall a general-purpose AI model on the EU market under Article 93 of the AI Act. The source is official Commission publications.
FULL DETAILS
If, between 10:04 UTC on October 13, 2026 and 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, the European Commission — including acting through the European AI Office — adopts a decision under Article 93(1)(c) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (the AI Act) requesting a provider of a general-purpose AI model to restrict the making available on the market of, withdraw, or recall that model, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Decisions adopted before 10:04 UTC on October 13, 2026 are not taken into account, even if they are announced or reported later. The Primary Designated Source is official European Commission publications (the Official Journal of the European Union, Commission press releases, or the AI Office’s pages on digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu), with confirmation by at least one of Reuters, Bloomberg or the Financial Times.
A qualifying decision counts if it is adopted within the window and publicly confirmed by 23:59:59 UTC on January 31, 2027, whether it covers the whole EU market or only certain versions, uses or Member States, and regardless of any later appeal, court suspension or the provider’s compliance. A Commission decision making binding a provider’s commitment to restrict, withdraw or recall its model (Article 93(3)) also counts. Requests for information, model evaluations, other compliance or risk-mitigation measures, fines on their own, voluntary withdrawals without such a decision, and actions by national authorities concerning AI systems do not count. In ambiguous cases, the spirit of the market — whether the EU formally required a general-purpose AI model to be restricted on, withdrawn from or recalled from the EU market — prevails over technicalities.
BACKGROUND (NON-BINDING)
The AI Office’s enforcement powers over general-purpose AI model providers became applicable on August 2, 2026. As of this draft, no restriction, withdrawal or recall decision had been reported.