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Will Tesla beat its Q3 2026 earnings estimate? Yes: real money 43%, play money 43% No: real money 57%, play money 57% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Big Companies, Tesla Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 8288.9055012, play 116640.461289 Bettors: real 73, play 76 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? (ID: 201462) Volume: real 1199.00465764, play 189089.74609407 Bettors: real 28, play 146 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 7% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 798.20311148, play 68327.52697574 Bettors: real 21, play 91 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 100%

Will Tesla beat its Q3 2026 earnings estimate?

Market Rules

SUMMARY

This market covers only Tesla's Q3 2026 earnings release, scheduled for after the US market close on October 21, 2026. It resolves "Yes" if Tesla's reported non-GAAP EPS for the quarter is greater than $0.43 — the Street consensus estimate at the source market's creation — per Tesla's official earnings documents.

FULL DETAILS

If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) reports non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) greater than $0.43 for the third quarter of 2026 (the quarter ended September 30, 2026) in its next quarterly earnings release — scheduled by Tesla for after the US market close on October 21, 2026 — this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only the figure from this earnings release counts; EPS figures for any other quarter or release are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is the non-GAAP EPS listed in Tesla's official earnings documents (ir.tesla.com).

The $0.43 strike is the Street consensus estimate for the quarter; a reported figure of exactly $0.43 resolves "No". All figures are in USD and rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If several non-GAAP EPS figures are published, the primary headline figure governs (diluted basis, or basic if diluted is not published). If Tesla releases earnings without a non-GAAP EPS figure, the non-GAAP EPS reported by Seeking Alpha governs; if no such figure is published within 96 hours of the 4:00 PM ET market close on the day earnings are announced, the GAAP EPS in Tesla's official earnings documents governs, or, if not published there, the GAAP EPS provided by Seeking Alpha (GAAP EPS means diluted GAAP EPS, or basic if diluted is not published; IFRS EPS is treated as GAAP EPS); if no GAAP EPS is available from either source at that time, this market will resolve to "No". If Tesla does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of October 20, 2026 (that is, by December 4, 2026), this market will resolve to "No". Later restatements, corrections or revisions of the initially announced figure do not affect resolution, except for obvious and immediate errors (such as typographical "fat-finger" mistakes).

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