Trump impeached and removed before 2028?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market counts only a Senate conviction announced between November 5, 2026, 17:56 UTC and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves "Yes" if Donald Trump is impeached by the House and convicted by a two-thirds Senate vote in that period, per official US Congress records; it resolves "No" if he leaves office first or no conviction occurs.
FULL DETAILS
If Donald Trump is impeached and removed from the office of President of the United States between November 5, 2026, 17:56 UTC and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Impeachment means the US House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump; removal means the US Senate votes to convict him on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the US Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. Only a conviction announced in that period counts; convictions or votes outside it are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is official information from the US Congress, including Senate roll call votes; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The conviction is considered to occur at the time of the presiding officer's announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes and partial vote tallies do not qualify. This market resolves to "Yes" upon a qualifying conviction regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Donald Trump vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction.
Impeachment without a Senate conviction does not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment does not, on its own, resolve this market. A transfer of presidential powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment does not qualify and does not count as leaving office. If Donald Trump formally leaves the office of President for any reason before a qualifying conviction, this market will immediately resolve to "No"; an announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office.