Markets
Leaderboard
NASA's Artemis 3 to find and use water on the Moon? Yes: real money 30%, play money 12% No: real money 70%, play money 88% Volume: real money 238.967502, play money 30864.60299561 Bettors: real money 11, play money 169 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Moon, Artemis Mission Related markets Russian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 2028? (ID: 112737) Volume: real 161.17957837, play 4643.29053528 Bettors: real 10, play 34 Leading (real money): Russian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 202 77% Leading (play money): Russian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 202 78% NASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 193962) Volume: real 326.38964822, play 42662.86887248 Bettors: real 15, play 20 Leading (real money): NASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026? 9% Leading (play money): NASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026? 7% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 787.02162046, play 64608.2401689 Bettors: real 21, play 89 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 23% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 6%

NASA's Artemis 3 to find and use water on the Moon?

Market Rules

NASA's Artemis lunar exploration program has several goals to achieve while the astronauts are on the Moon during the Artemis 3 mission. One of them is to find and use water, needed for long-term explorations.

Scientists have predicted in the 1960s that there would be water on the Moon's poles, probably as ice. India's first lunar mission, in 2008, helped confirm that there is indeed water on the moon, like ice. The challenge now is to find this water and make it usable, as water is a heavy thing to bring on space missions, and having it on-site would make missions easier and cheaper.

If, during the Artemis 3 mission, astronauts manage to find and to use lunar water this question will be resolved as "yes".

Comments

  • deagol: FutuurBot This mission is currently scheduled for 2025 at the earliest, but the market end date is Feb 29, 2024. Nothing in the description suggests a deadline for the resolution of this market, i.e. it states the only criteria is the finding and use of water during the mission, whenever it’s attempted. Will forecasters have to wait for a year or more with a frozen, unresolved market without being able to adjust the forecast, or will you extend the end date to be closer to the mission launch? Thanks. Also, there’s huge drift in price even with a small bet amount, which does not seem to reflect the volume amount disclosed as the liquidity pool.
  • Futuur: Hello, deagol . When there is no clear deadline in the market details nor in the title, Futuur is allowed to adjust the bet end date. This is the case in this market, as our goal has less to do with WHEN will the mission take place, but rather with whether or not it will be successful when it does. Taking into account NASA's new updated timeline (thank you for informing us about that), we have just updated the bet end date to allow users to continue to update their positions until the mission's deployment.
  • deagol: Futuur Great. Any feedback on the AMM’s liquidity parameter being stuck and not reflecting the volume of bets? Thanks.
  • deagol: deagol Please clarify, thanks. cc @Futuur @lucaslocher7 @tom

Related Markets