Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
- Anthropic43%
- Google50%
- OpenAI10%
- DeepSeek2%
- xAI3%
- Meta2%
Finance
10
Will the AI bubble burst by…?
- By December 31, 20266%
- By June 30, 202719%
What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?
- Less than 80%10%
- Between 80.0% and 89.9% (inclusive)32%
- Between 90.0% and 99.9% (inclusive)53%
- 100% or higher5%
What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
- Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive)72%
- 96.1% or higher28%
- Less than 85.1%5%
- Between 85.1% and 89.0% (inclusive)6%
- Between 89.1% and 93.0% (inclusive)49%
Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Yes17%
No83%
Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?
Yes20%
No80%
Will the US Congress pass, and the President sign, a binding frontier-AI law before 2027?
Yes6%
No94%
Will an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
Yes5%
No95%
Will the EU order a general-purpose AI model withdrawn or restricted from its market before 2027?
Yes3%
No97%
Will the US create a new regulatory body for AI oversight in 2026?
Yes8%
No92%