Will the US Congress pass, and the President sign, a binding frontier-AI law before 2027?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market resolves "Yes" if, between October 13, 2026 and December 31, 2026, Congress passes and the President signs a law imposing binding obligations specifically on frontier AI developers. The source is the Congress.gov legislative record.
FULL DETAILS
If, on a date between October 13, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), a bill or joint resolution containing binding federal frontier-AI provisions (as defined below) is passed by both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate and signed into law by the President of the United States, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Laws signed before October 13, 2026 are not taken into account, even if they otherwise meet this definition. The Primary Designated Source is the official legislative record on Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — the bill’s "Became Public Law" action and enacted text — with confirmation by AP or Reuters.
Binding federal frontier-AI provisions are statutory provisions that impose legally enforceable obligations — such as safety testing, safety or risk-management frameworks, transparency or reporting, incident reporting, or third-party auditing requirements — specifically on developers of frontier AI models, where the statute identifies those developers or models by capability, training compute, or developer size tied to training such models (e.g., "frontier model", "large frontier developer", "covered model"). They count whether enacted as a standalone law or inside a broader bill (such as an NDAA or appropriations act). Laws that only fund research, create or codify agencies or programs without imposing such obligations, mandate government studies, set voluntary standards, preempt state law without imposing federal obligations, or address only specific AI uses or harms (such as deepfakes or AI-assisted fraud) do not count; nor do executive orders, agency rules, or laws enacted without the President’s signature (veto override or the ten-day rule). The signing date recorded on Congress.gov governs; in ambiguous cases, the spirit of the market — whether federal law now imposes binding obligations on frontier AI developers — prevails over technicalities.