Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Market Rules
If, between January 1, 2026 00:00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC, the United States federal government enacts a law or issues an executive order that introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models — based on the model's general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model) — this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
An "AI safety requirement" is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system's general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls. The Primary Designated Source is the United States Code / Federal Register record of the enacted statute or executive order, accessible via congress.gov, federalregister.gov, and whitehouse.gov.
Requirements about privacy, copyright, federal procurement, or those imposed based on a specific application, audience, or content category (rather than the model's general capability level) do not count. Proposed bills, executive orders that have been rescinded before the deadline, or court-stayed orders that are vacated before the deadline do not count toward Yes. State-level laws do not count. A consensus of credible reporting (e. g. Reuters, AP, Politico, The New York Times) may be used to confirm enactment. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.