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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 1%, play money 17% No: real money 99%, play money 83% Volume: real money 1114.18929898, play money 231111.48121335 Bettors: real money 30, play money 499 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 345.2251762, play 31921.2414 Bettors: real 2, play 18 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 12% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 16% Will China try to take Taiwan using military force in 2026? (ID: 231681) Volume: real 472.19307652, play 68578.6002 Bettors: real 3, play 14 Leading (real money): Will China try to take Taiwan using military force in 2026? 12% Leading (play money): Will China try to take Taiwan using military force in 2026? 12% Will Trump visit China by...? (ID: 236188) Volume: real 527.39468241, play 45182.0029 Bettors: real 7, play 9 Leading (real money): June 30 88% Leading (play money): June 30 77% End of US military operation in Iran by ...? (ID: 237495) Volume: real 560.15862206, play 32750.0062 Bettors: real 8, play 8 Leading (real money): June 30 65% Leading (play money): June 30 87% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 179.945, play 31619.99829582 Bettors: real 1, play 25 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 8%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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