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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 1%, play money 9% No: real money 99%, play money 91% Volume: real money 1585.53526888, play money 232657.621554 Bettors: real money 35, play money 503 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 755.94482186, play 45587.4972037 Bettors: real 53, play 45 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 345.50541443, play 32608.41721536 Bettors: real 7, play 22 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 10% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 13% Keir Starmer out as UK’s prime minister by ...? (ID: 233775) Volume: real 1765.38704393, play 48463.58116769 Bettors: real 26, play 22 Leading (real money): December 31 78% Leading (play money): December 31 55% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 180.0549996, play 31727.52474009 Bettors: real 3, play 26 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 8% Trump to lift Hormuz blockade by ...? (ID: 238413) Volume: real 1889.56911587, play 44945.98055657 Bettors: real 21, play 20 Leading (real money): June 30 68% Leading (play money): June 30 67%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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