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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 1%, play money 8% No: real money 99%, play money 92% Volume: real money 1711.95573343, play money 248684.5794556 Bettors: real money 35, play money 510 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 8392.4404177, play 127326.62930396 Bettors: real 74, play 78 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 160.60586931, play 28043.8561648 Bettors: real 7, play 22 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 3% What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026? (ID: 239444) Volume: real 4506.1637148, play 86080.74289503 Bettors: real 48, play 50 Leading (real money): Between $ 75,000 and $ 89,999.99 46% Leading (play money): Between $ 75,000 and $ 89,999.99 34% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 80.0849996, play 22169.46506245 Bettors: real 3, play 27 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 7% Will GTA VI be released during 2026? (ID: 239438) Volume: real 670.30740208, play 109168.84447517 Bettors: real 6, play 18 Leading (real money): Will GTA VI be released during 2026? 97% Leading (play money): Will GTA VI be released during 2026? 96%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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