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SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 8%, play money 18% No: real money 92%, play money 82% Volume: real money 1134.70489845, play money 187161.12910342 Bettors: real money 28, play money 144 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 755.94482186, play 45587.4972037 Bettors: real 53, play 45 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? (ID: 202141) Volume: real 138.24813846, play 14240.1204 Bettors: real 6, play 26 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 6% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 21% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 839.46430053, play 73092.52280048 Bettors: real 19, play 88 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 2% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 7%

SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft without a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the Starship is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2026 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.

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