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SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 50%, play money 50% No: real money 50%, play money 50% Volume: real money 824.95285104, play money 170877.26768731 Bettors: real money 24, play money 136 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026? (ID: 212455) Volume: real 254.45880985, play 16610.0032 Bettors: real 5, play 18 Leading (real money): Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026? 13% Leading (play money): Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026? 15% SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? (ID: 202141) Volume: real 153.54721007, play 13130.02 Bettors: real 4, play 21 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 6% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 21% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 413.31508456, play 72880.01331637 Bettors: real 14, play 85 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 50% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 8%

SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft without a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the Starship is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2026 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.

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