Will Donald Trump file to run for President for a third time?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether Donald Trump will officially file to run for a third presidential campaign in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. "File to run for President" is defined as Trump formally filing candidacy paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and publicly declaring his intention to run, accompanied by active campaign efforts such as fundraising, organizing campaign events, or participating in primary debates. If no such announcement and filing occurs before the FEC's candidacy deadline, it will resolve as "No".
If Trump indicates interest in running but does not take the necessary legal steps to become an official candidate, the market will resolve as "No." Additionally, since a third presidential term is unconstitutional under the 22nd Amendment, any attempt to challenge the rule—such as calling for its repeal or contesting its validity—will not be enough for a "Yes" resolution unless he successfully files as a candidate with the FEC. If Trump files to run but is later ruled ineligible, the market will still resolve as "Yes" based on the filing alone.
Verification will rely on official filings with the FEC, public statements made by Trump himself, or announcements from campaign representatives. Reports from reputable news sources may also be used for confirmation. Speculative discussions, endorsements from allies, or unofficial campaign activity will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution unless Trump explicitly declares his candidacy.