Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?

This market will resolve based on whether JD Vance is formally declared the Republican Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election at the Republican National Convention (RNC). Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official roll call of delegates and the certification of the nomination by the Republican National Committee. To count as the nominee, Vance must receive the majority of pledged delegate votes required under RNC rules and be officially confirmed as the presidential nominee at the convention.

Resolution Timing and First-Truth Principle: This market will generally resolve at the conclusion of the 2028 Republican National Convention once the official nominee is declared. Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of whether Vance is or is not the Republican nominee, not minor technicalities of process. Winning sufficient delegate support in primaries or caucuses before the convention (even if JD Vance secures the required delegate majority and the RNC publicly confirms it before the convention) is not enough to resolve this market to "Yes", unless the RNC modifies its procedures and makes a binding announcement of the nomination before the convention takes place.

Post-Nomination Contingencies: If JD Vance is officially declared the Republican nominee and later renounces, is stripped of the nomination, or dies after receiving it, the market will still resolve to "Yes" because he was the official nominee at the time of the nomination confirmation. Subsequent developments after a valid nomination do not change the resolution.

Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): If the PDS is unavailable, delayed, or ambiguous, Futuur may rely on a consensus of reports from major, reputable news organizations chosen at its discretion to confirm the outcome. Futuur will always resolve the market according to the substantive outcome and intent. If no fair determination is possible, the market may be cancelled.