Will the US' sovereign credit rating be downgraded again by Fitch, Moody's or S&P by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This Market asks whether any of the three leading agencies—Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Ratings, or S&P Global Ratings—will issue a further downgrade to the United States’ long‑term sovereign credit rating (long‑term foreign‑currency issuer rating) by December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC (the “Market Period”).
Current benchmarks when this market was opened: Fitch: AA+ / Stable (affirmed Aug 22, 2025); Moody’s: Aa1 / Stable (downgraded May 16, 2025); S&P: AA+ / Stable (affirmed Aug 19, 2025).
Primary Designated Source (PDS): the agencies’ official rating action publications (press releases, rating action notices, or issuer pages on their official websites) explicitly stating that the United States’ long‑term sovereign rating level is lowered. If any of the three agencies publishes such an action during the Market Period, this market will resolve to "Yes". If none do, this market will resolve to "No".
Clarifications:
- Changes to outlook (e.g., from Stable to Negative) or placement on watch/creditwatch without a rating‑level change do not count.
- Actions on national‑scale ratings, state/municipal/sub‑sovereign entities, or corporates do not count.
- Methodology updates only count if the published action explicitly lowers the U.S. long‑term sovereign rating level.
Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): Futuur may rely on reliable news organizations, chosen at Futuur’s discretion, reporting the downgrade. Resolution will follow the substantive outcome and market intent rather than minor technicalities like URL or layout changes. If no fair determination is possible, the market may be cancelled.