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Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026? Yes: real money 27%, play money 26% No: real money 73%, play money 74% Volume: real money 199.94, play money 20500.0004 Bettors: real money 0, play money 1 Categories: Politics, USA, Supreme Court Related markets Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 640.92898739, play 68989.89904398 Bettors: real 30, play 77 Leading (real money): Kash Patel 66% Leading (play money): Kash Patel 70% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 736.33367686, play 31583.12480585 Bettors: real 10, play 45 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 13% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 19% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2422.49475017, play 113871.83467419 Bettors: real 34, play 205 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 50% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 71% Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 1935.24408401, play 35762.14306169 Bettors: real 18, play 81 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 50% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 42% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 2962.18003222, play 136707.61608244 Bettors: real 26, play 206 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 50% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57%

Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether the membership (composition) of the Supreme Court of the United States will change at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a “change in composition” means that at least one Justice leaves the Court (e.g., resignation, retirement, death) and/or at least one new Justice is sworn in to fill a seat. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements and records from the Supreme Court of the United States regarding its membership (e.g., official website communications) and the official record of any swearing-in.

If at least one Justice leaves the Court and/or at least one new Justice is sworn in during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Temporary changes due to recusals or other temporary absences will not count. If official Court information is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from multiple major, editorially independent news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive membership change, not minor technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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