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Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026? Yes: real money 20%, play money 20% No: real money 80%, play money 80% Volume: real money 57.79872147, play money 5028.06989301 Bettors: real money 7, play money 7 Categories: Politics, USA, Supreme Court Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1711.95573343, play 248684.5794556 Bettors: real 35, play 510 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 8% Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 3735.65043629, play 73650.36443242 Bettors: real 29, play 96 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 36% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 22% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1693.81254225, play 150233.06645622 Bettors: real 89, play 106 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2742.54682011, play 121371.10993985 Bettors: real 39, play 215 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 37% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 80% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3258.0711089, play 138639.04709376 Bettors: real 31, play 211 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 40% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 46%

Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether the membership (composition) of the Supreme Court of the United States will change at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a “change in composition” means that at least one Justice leaves the Court (e.g., resignation, retirement, death) and/or at least one new Justice is sworn in to fill a seat. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements and records from the Supreme Court of the United States regarding its membership (e.g., official website communications) and the official record of any swearing-in.

If at least one Justice leaves the Court and/or at least one new Justice is sworn in during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Temporary changes due to recusals or other temporary absences will not count. If official Court information is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from multiple major, editorially independent news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive membership change, not minor technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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