Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in California by the enf of June 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Tesla, Inc. will launch a commercially available driverless Robotaxi service at any time between January 1, 2026 and June 30, 2026 (inclusive) in the state of California. For this market, a launch means offering a service to the public using vehicles operating without a human driver. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements by Tesla confirming the launch of such a service.
If Tesla launches a driverless Robotaxi service available to the public during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Limited pilots with safety drivers or closed tests will not count. If official announcements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major automotive or technology news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive public availability of a driverless service, not demonstrations or testing. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.