Will any country leave the Commonwealth in 2026?

This event predicts whether any member country of the Commonwealth of Nations will decide to leave the organization between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the official membership records published by the Commonwealth, as available through the organization’s official website. If any country formally withdraws or ceases to be a member with an effective date in 2026, the market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.

If the Commonwealth’s official records are unavailable, unclear, or if there are disputed memberships as of December 31, 2026, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be official statements or clarifications issued by the Commonwealth Secretariat. These markets will be resolved according to the substantive outcome—the final list of member countries recognized by the organization—rather than minor technicalities of presentation. If no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.