Trump pardons in 2026
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Donald J. Trump will grant executive clemency to the individuals listed on the markets on or before December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. For the purposes of this event, executive clemency includes either a presidential pardon or a commutation of sentence exercised under Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official act of clemency issued by the President of the United States and recorded by the White House or the U.S. Department of Justice.
If official records are delayed, unavailable, or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by reputable U.S. news organizations citing authenticated government sources. These markets will be resolved according to the substantive outcome—whether the individual is granted a pardon or commutation—rather than minor technicalities of announcement timing or formatting. If no fair determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.