Keir Starmer out as UK’s prime minister by ...?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Keir Starmer will leave the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through the dates described in the event’s markets. For the purposes of this event, “leave office” means that Keir Starmer ceases to hold the position of Prime Minister through resignation, removal, or replacement during the market period.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official UK government records and announcements, including statements from 10 Downing Street, the UK Cabinet Office, or official parliamentary records confirming the exit of the Prime Minister. The markets correctly describing the period in which Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister will resolve to 'Yes'.
If official government records are delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be confirmation from a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible news organizations reporting a change in the office of Prime Minister. Resolution will be based on the substantive exit from the office, not temporary incapacity or ceremonial delegation of duties. If no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the event with a public explanation.