Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election
Market Rules
Legislative elections for the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026. Following the election, the President of Israel tasks a Knesset member with forming a coalition government. This event predicts the next person formally sworn in as Prime Minister before the Knesset as a result of that election. Each market under this event corresponds to a potential Prime Minister. Only the market matching the person who is sworn in will resolve to "Yes"; all others resolve to "No". Interim, caretaker, acting, and designate roles do not count — only a fully invested Prime Minister settles the event.
If a snap or early election is called, the event predicts the Prime Minister will be sworn in after that election; if the scheduled election is postponed, the event predicts whichever Knesset election next takes place. Under a rotating-premiership arrangement, the first person formally invested settles the markets. If a named candidate dies or withdraws before being sworn in, their individual market resolves "No". If no Prime Minister is sworn in by February 28, 2027 (23:59 UTC), all named-individual markets resolve "No".
Resolution is based on the official swearing-in announcement by the Knesset Spokesperson or the President's office, or concordant reporting by at least two of AP, Reuters, and The New York Times.