Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?
Market Rules
If, as a result of the September 6, 2026, election to the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt, the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats (more than half of all seats) in the Landtag, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based solely on the final number of seats won by AfD. The Primary Designated Source is the official seat allocation published by the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de) and the State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiter) for Sachsen-Anhalt. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election does not take place, the market will resolve to "No". Reruns, partial reruns, or court-ordered changes to the seat allocation that are concluded before the final seat allocation is certified will be reflected in the final seat count used for resolution; changes confirmed after the certification will not. Resolution is based on the final certified seat count or on provisional projections only if they showcase an absolute majority beyond mathematical doubt. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.