Will China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether China will blockade Taiwan during calendar year 2026. If, at any time in this period, most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 continuous days due to physical actions by China, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The Primary Designated Source is the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defence and the Republic of China (Taiwan) Mainland Affairs Council, supplemented by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense and a consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Nikkei Asia).
A reduction in port traffic must be directly due to Chinese physical actions — cyberattacks, threats, or unrelated closures do not qualify. For this market, ports administered by Taiwan include but are not limited to ports in Penghu, Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Green Island, Orchid Island, and Xiaoliuqiu.
Military attacks on Taiwan's land territory, military forces, or coast guard, and Chinese seizure of Taiwan-controlled land without Taiwan's permission, are covered by a separate market on Futuur and do not, on their own, trigger “Yes” for this blockade market — unless those actions also result in the 5-day commercial-traffic stoppage described above. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.