Will Ukraine sign an EU Accession Treaty by December 2027?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether Ukraine will sign an Accession Treaty with the European Union before December 31, 2027 (23:59 UTC). An Accession Treaty is the formal treaty document signed by EU member states and the acceding country that culminates EU enlargement negotiations and, once ratified by all parties, makes Ukraine a member of the European Union. If Ukraine and the European Union sign such an Accession Treaty on or before the deadline, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Preliminary instruments do not count toward a “Yes” resolution, such as the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (2014), the granting of candidate status (June 2022), the opening of accession negotiations (June 2024), and the closing of individual negotiating chapters. The Accession Treaty must be signed by both Ukrainian representatives and EU representatives in an official ceremony recognized by the European Council. Subsequent ratification by EU member states and the Ukrainian parliament is not required for this market to resolve to “Yes”, only the signing. If Ukraine loses recognized candidate status before the deadline (e.g., suspension by the European Council), the market resolves to "No".
The Primary Designated Source is the official communications of the European Council and the European Commission's Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR), supplemented by Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Politico Europe, New York Times).