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European Central Bank interest rate decision in December 50+ bps decrease: real money 1%, play money 1% 25 bps decrease: real money 1%, play money 1% No change: real money 11%, play money 11% 25 bps increase: real money 86%, play money 86% 50+ bps increase: real money 1%, play money 1% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, European Union Related markets United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026 (ID: 231730) Volume: real 1197.96938795, play 158677.49001942 Bettors: real 33, play 28 Leading (real money): Greater than 3.75% 93% Leading (play money): Greater than 3.75% 79% US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 (ID: 231723) Volume: real 1012.11697173, play 119694.55661901 Bettors: real 41, play 33 Leading (real money): 3.5% or more 92% Leading (play money): 3.5% or more 92% Winner of France’s presidential election (ID: 237493) Volume: real 942.77259695, play 55650.19780173 Bettors: real 41, play 27 Leading (real money): Marine Le Pen 47% Leading (play money): Marine Le Pen 43% Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 (ID: 231724) Volume: real 1922.14262321, play 49243.53820347 Bettors: real 62, play 34 Leading (real money): 0 91% Leading (play money): 0 89%

European Central Bank interest rate decision in December

Market Rules

This event covers only the decision announced at the European Central Bank's December 2026 monetary policy meeting (scheduled for December 16–17, 2026). Markets resolve according to the change, in basis points, in the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate (the upper bound, if defined as a range) resulting from that meeting, relative to its level immediately prior to the meeting. Exactly one outcome will resolve "Yes".

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