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Who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister? Justin Trudeau (or other Liberal Party member): real money 32%, play money 49% Erin O'Toole (or other Conservative Party member): real money 31%, play money 30% Jagmeet Singh (or other New Democratic Party member): real money 16%, play money 2% Yves-François Blanchet (or other Bloc Québécois member): real money 12%, play money 16% Annamie Paul (or other Green Party member): real money 10%, play money 2% Volume: real money 90.22672863, play money 6416.89 Bettors: real money 8, play money 18 Categories: Politics, Canada Related markets Separatist referendum in any Canadian province in 2026? (ID: 231692) Volume: real 977.73877617, play 29239.71329166 Bettors: real 19, play 18 Leading (real money): Separatist referendum in any Canadian province in 2026? 18% Leading (play money): Separatist referendum in any Canadian province in 2026? 20% Will Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026? (ID: 231649) Volume: real 16.36714634, play 1552.30763714 Bettors: real 7, play 6 Leading (real money): Will Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026? 90% Leading (play money): Will Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026? 91%

Who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister?

Market Rules

The next Canadian federal elections are set to take place in October 2025. The upcoming choice of prime minister will depend on the new composition of the Canadian Parliament following those elections.

The alternative that corresponds to the name of the first person to step in as Prime Minister of Canada following the elections of 2025 will be considered the winning outcome of this market. If the winner's name is not listed in the alternatives, the alternative containing his/her party will be considered the winning outcome for this market.

Alternatively, if the Canadian elections of 2025 take place on a different date - or if any unforeseen event leads to a change of Prime Minister in Canada before that - this market may be resolved on a different date from what was initially planned, as soon as the next individual to take office as Prime Minister of Canada is determined.

Note from the editor: A previous version of this market incorrectly stated that Trudeau's term was originally meant to last through 2023. That was incorrect, and was later on corrected to October 2025.

Comments

  • CGH: Should this bet not have been resolved in September? 

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