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Will the number of fires in California be higher in 2021 than in 2020? No: real money 98%, play money 99% Yes: real money 2%, play money 1% Volume: real money 634.56590969, play money 40875.83 Bettors: real money 8, play money 10 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? (ID: 231553) Volume: real 509.25144559, play 70359.67119338 Bettors: real 11, play 27 Leading (real money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 89% Leading (play money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 89% Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? (ID: 239446) Volume: real 614.45565682, play 3260.7021384 Bettors: real 14, play 8 Leading (real money): Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 38% Leading (play money): Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 48% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 316.75459546, play 17381.5251826 Bettors: real 23, play 60 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 46% Leading (play money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 62%

Will the number of fires in California be higher in 2021 than in 2020?

Market Rules

In 2020, there was a huge increase in the number of fires in California, a place where fire seasons are common during the driest times of the year. In 2020 there were 8112 fires, in comparison to there were 5687 cases in 2019.

If the number of fires in California in 2021 is higher than in 2020, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.

This market will be resolved based on data from the website https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/, as soon as the figures for the full year of 2021 are made available. These figures are expected to be released in January 2022 but might suffer delays.

Comments

  • FabHK: Hello from another ACT reader. Looks like we're too late.

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