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Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive): real money 50%, play money 50% Between 1.39 °C and 1.42 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 18% Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 18% Below 1.39 °C: real money 7%, play money 7% 1.52 °C or higher: real money 7%, play money 7% Volume: real money 25.29296753, play money 2500.3 Bettors: real money 6, play money 6 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 755.94482186, play 50970.64319149 Bettors: real 53, play 46 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? (ID: 142272) Volume: real 343.49419209, play 38229.6986922 Bettors: real 12, play 83 Leading (real money): Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 72% Leading (play money): Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 36% China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1585.53526888, play 238869.17288054 Bettors: real 35, play 509 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 9% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 212.83978154, play 12350.5851826 Bettors: real 23, play 58 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 76% Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? (ID: 142271) Volume: real 578.12137578, play 82713.65614915 Bettors: real 28, play 191 Leading (real money): Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 84% Leading (play money): Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 90%

Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Market Rules

What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker. Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026). If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026. Otherwise, this question may be annulled.

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