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Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? Yes: real money 72%, play money 80% No: real money 28%, play money 20% Volume: real money 375.69614308, play money 69130.45887073 Bettors: real money 11, play money 26 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 987.24947279, play 508517.50310836 Bettors: real 43, play 1223 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 66% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 51% Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? (ID: 239446) Volume: real 614.45565682, play 3260.7021384 Bettors: real 14, play 8 Leading (real money): Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 38% Leading (play money): Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 48% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 316.75459546, play 17381.5251826 Bettors: real 23, play 60 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 46% Leading (play money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 62%

Will 2026 be the warmest year on record?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.

If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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